White Sox Trade Dylan Cease to the Padres — Here’s How Odds Shifted
Dylan Cease is headed west. The Chicago White Sox are reportedly trading Cease to the San Diego Padres according to ESPN's Jeff Passan.
BREAKING: The San Diego Padres are finalizing a trade to acquire right-hander Dylan Cease from the Chicago White Sox, sources tell ESPN.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) March 13, 2024
The full terms of the trade have not yet been disclosed. The 2022 American League Cy Young runner up was on the trade block all spring and had been rumored to land with a number of teams but the Padres appear to have secured the talented right-hander's services. Cease will join a Padres rotation that includes five-time All-Star Yu Darvish and 2022 All-Star Joe Musgrove.
The Padres entered spring training with the modest expectations based on their odds. As of yesterday at DraftKings, the Padres were 60-1 to win the 2024 World Series, 28-1 to win the National League, 12-1 to win the NL West division and had a win total of 81.5. In the wake of the trade news, the Padres moved to 50-1 to win the World series, 20-1 to win the NL, 10-1 in the division and their win total stands at 83.5.
Padres Odds AnalysisBrad Cunningham: Dylan Cease is one of the best pitchers in baseball right now and instantly should add around three wins to the Padres. We forget so quickly that he narrowly lost out to Justin Verlander for the 2022 AL Cy Young and had two seasons where he was a 4.5-WAR pitcher.
He also gets the benefit of going from a hitter-friendly park to the most pitcher-friendly parks in the majors, which will only help him.
The main reason Cease is so good is because he has an elite fastball. Last season, it averaged close to 96 mph and had a Stuff+ rating of 125, which was second best in baseball behind only Spencer Strider. He backs that up with a tremendous slider that has produced over a 43% whiff rate in back-to-back seasons.
Cease’s problem has always been commanding his arsenal. He’s never had below a 3.5 BB/9 rate throughout his career, so even though he has one of the highest strikeout rates in baseball, for him to reach his true potential he has to be able to command his fastball and slider in the zone.
The Padres' win total jumped from 81.5 to 83.5 with the Cease trade and gives the Padres a clear front three with him, Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove. Cease’s average projected WAR is around 3.0, but the reality is that the projection systems were already two wins lower on the Padres before this trade, so they are priced right where they should be for win totals.
