Matheus Nicolau vs. Alex Perez OddsNicolau Odds-180Perez Odds+155Over/Under3.5 (-125 / -105)LocationUFC Apex in Las VegasTime9:30 p.m. ETHow to WatchESPN & ESPN+Odds as of Saturday and via Caesars. Bet on Nicolau vs. Perez at Caesars Sportsbook bonus code.

Here's our Matheus Nicolau vs. Alex Perez pick with a UFC Vegas 91 prediction for the main event on Saturday, April 27

The UFC returns to the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas on Saturday for an important main event in the men's flyweight division between No. 5-ranked UFC contender Matheus Nicolau and No. 8-ranked Alex Perez.

Perez is taking the bout on short notice in place of Manel Kape. After three consecutive losses, the former title challenger has tumbled down the 125-pound rankings. Still, Perez was highly competitive against surging prospect Mohammad Mokaev in March – his first fight since July 2022 and fifth since 2019 (amid 13 canceled bouts over the same span).

Perez has struggled to make the flyweight limit but hasn't had issues for his past two bouts, and he may look improved in his second fight after a layoff.

Nicolau was originally slated as the "B side" of this fight against Kape. He was booked for a main event slot following a knockout loss to Brandon Royval last March so that Kape could avenge his split-decision loss to Nicolau in 2021.

Nicolau closed around +125 in the fight against Kape, opened +160 for the rematch, and was a consensus +218 underdog (31.5% implied) when that fight was canceled.

Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC Vegas 91 main event and utilize those factors to bet on Nicolau vs. Perez, who should make their cage walks at approximately 9:25 p.m. ET (6:25 p.m. PT) on ESPN and ESPN+.

Tale of the TapeNicolauPerezRecord19-4-124-8Avg. Fight Time11:146:38Height5'6"5'6"Weight (pounds)125.5 lbs.126 lbs.Reach (inches)66"65"StanceOrthodoxOrthodoxDate of birth1/6/19933/21/1992Sig Strikes Per Min3.664.12SS Accuracy53F%SS Absorbed Per Min3.143.14SS Defense66Y%Take Down Avg1.482.26TD Acc45D%TD Def93